Pages 62— Davidson, Basil. Longman Publishing Company. Pages 95— Sibanda, M. Book 1. Harare, Zimbabwe. Pages 97— This is a simulation of the trade which took place between Africa and Asia between approximately and on the Indian Ocean. It demonstrates that Africa played a crucial role in the world economy long before contact with European nations.
This simulation helps students discard the notion that African people were primitive and isolated from the outside world by showing how kingdoms and city-states in Eastern and Central Africa were involved in the vast and profitable Indian Ocean trade network. One or two minute periods, depending on whether or not the class needs time before the simulation to work on the How to Make a Profit sheet.
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Day One: For students whom you feel may need some extra guidance before being thrown into the actual simulation which is quite fast-paced. NOTE : some students my be surprised to learn that the iron bars are the most profitable item. Most people think that the porcelain dishes are the most profitable because you can sell them for the highest price. This is a good opportunity to discuss profit as a function of volume and percentages. Therefore, selling 30 gold coins worth of iron bars is far more profitable earning a gain of coins than selling 30 gold coins worth 1 set of porcelain earning only 70 coins.
Your group is a trading company in the year The merchants working for the company are from East Africa and Asia. The object of the simulation is to make as much profit as you can by traveling back and forth across the Indian Ocean and conducting trade between Asian and African kingdoms. Use the Price List below as a guide. Use the units listed on the Price List. Sources: Clark, Leon. The Lost Cities of Africa. Little, Brown and Company. Pages — The simulation can be used: during a unit on African or Asian history as a contrast to the European Middle Ages as an introduction to the European Age of Exploration.
Time: One or two minute periods, depending on whether or not the class needs time before the simulation to work on the How to Make a Profit sheet. Procedure: Day One: For students whom you feel may need some extra guidance before being thrown into the actual simulation which is quite fast-paced. Put students into small groups of no more than four. Give each student a How to Make a Profit sheet. Explain that for any company to survive, it has to be able to make a profit.
Similarly, to complete the simulation successfully, each group has to know ahead of time how to make profits. Explain why an item is more expensive in one place than it is in another the Law of Supply and Demand. Go over the instructions on How to Make a Profit with the class. Moreover, the arc created by this Fibo-nacci circle provided solid resistance for priceaction during July and August of that year aswell.
Fibonacci circles are an exciting way to useFibonacci ratios, but they come with a word of Figure 42warning: because this technique introduces timeinto the equation, it is scale-sensitive, meaningthat compression data will sometimes distortthe outcome. Notice how the. A Fibonacci fan line drawn from the March and June peaks came into play in July and again in August byidentifying support and resistance i.
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Figure 46 illustrates probably the mostcommon approach to using Fibonacciratios to identify turning points in finan-cial markets. As you can see, it simplyrequires multiplying the distance in timebetween two important extremes by Fi-bonacci ratios and projecting the resultsforward in time. Figure 46Another way to time potential turns infinancial markets is to use the Fibonaccisequence itself i. In Wheat, beginning on March15, it is easy to see how this ap-proach successfully identified severalsignificant turns in price Figure Also notice how this methodology pointsto early October as potentially impor-tant.
To ac-quaint yourself with his ground-breaking Figure 47research into this field, check out hiswebsite, www. ConclusionIn the end, just as there is no wrong way to play with a box, there is no wrong way to apply Fibonacci analysisto financial markets. So take your Fibonacci box and have fun, and, remember, you arelimited only by your imagination. If you find something new, let me know. This sequence of numbers represents the propagation of rabbits during the month period and is referred to as the Fibonacci sequence.
Other ratios that can be derived from non-consecutive numbers in the sequence are:. From the DNA strand to the galaxy we live in, the Fibonacci ratio is present, defining the natural progression of growth and decay. One simple example is the human hand, compris- ing five fingers with each finger consisting of three bones. Elliott also realized the importance of the Fibonacci ratio.
Thanks to his discoveries, we use the Fibonacci ratio in calculating wave retracements and projections today. I will alwaysremember one in particular, who told me that a kid with a ruler could make a million dollars in the markets. He was talking about trendlines. And I was sold. I spent nearly three yearsdrawing trendlines andall sorts of geometricshapes on price charts. And you know, that griz-zled old trader was onlyhalf right. Trendlinesare one of the simplestand most dynamic toolsan analyst can employ Despite being extremelyuseful, trendlines are of-ten overlooked.
In Figure 48, I havedrawn a trendline usingtwo lows that occurredin early August and Sep- Figure 48tember As you cansee, each time prices ap-proached this line, they reversed course and advanced. Sometimes, Soybeans only fell to near this line beforeturning up. And other times, prices broke through momentarily before resuming the larger uptrend. But whatstill amazes me is that two seemingly insignificant lows last year pointed out the direction of Soybeans — andidentified several potential buying opportunities — for the next six months!
Chapter 6 —How To Draw and Use TrendlinesPrimary AngleBesides simply connecting highs and lows, you can draw trendlines in many other ways that are just as excitingand informative. Figure 49 shows a technique I call Primary Angle. Notice the upward trendline drawn in Sugarin late A1. Now look at the trendline up from the low A2. See anything interesting? These twotrendlines are parallel! The slope of the late rally is the same for the advance.
In fact, the range ofthe weekly high for the advance encompasses this line.
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Another way to use Primary Angle besides identifying possible trend changes is clear in Figure The trend-line up from the March low is a parallel of the late February advance. As you can see, prices were falling offof this trendline by the March high. I interpret this move as weak price action with waning momentum. Andresulting price action supports this conclusion. In Figure 51, notice how prices are to the right of the downwardtrendline from the March high. Again, this selloff lacks the intensity of its predecessor. You can see in Figure52 why this makes sense from an Elliott perspective.
The wave pattern from the late February Wave a bottomed at Wave c of 9 is under way, targeting Fibonaccisupport at I am surprised at how often this tool ushers in significant moves. Down from the September high in Coffee, three downward sloping trendlines are drawn against peaks1, 2 and 3; this is your fan. A break of the third trendline often signals a significant move or change in trend,which it did in this case. In December , Coffee gapped above this line and tried to test the top of it beforerallying to A similar example is illustrated in Figure 54, June Live Cattle.
Beginning with a significant extreme, threedownward sloping trendlines are drawn across the tops of three following peaks. Clearly, these lines providedimportant support during the mad cow incident in December and the late selloff in March. In short, even the most basic trendlines are a great analytical tool.
They work on any time frame and any mar-ket. You can draw them vertically for timing purposes , horizontally for marking support and resistance anddiagonally to identify possible turning points. Note: A special thanks goes out to that old pro who emphasized the basics and told me about the kid with theruler, Pete Desario.
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Elliott saw that parallel linesoften mark the upper and lower limits of impulse waves, specifi-cally waves four and five. In other words, prices trend within achannel. First, when you need to identify support for wave four, drawa line connecting the ends of waves one and three see Figure Then, draw a parallel line that touches the extreme of wavetwo. These two lines outline your channel, and the lower lineshows you the likeliest support for wave four. Figure 55A trick I have picked up overthe years is to double thechannel see Figure Todo this, place a third paral-lel line beneath your lowerline, at the point where allthree lines have equal spacebetween them.
The channelwidth is now double that ofthe Elliott channel. Your first line connectsthe ends of waves two andfour. Draw a parallel line atthe extreme of wave three see Figure The upperboundary of this channelidentifies fifth-wave resis-tance. Para-bolic is simply a term usedto describe price action thattravels far in a short periodof time. Fifth waves are tricky, andsometimes prices will ex-ceed this upper boundaryline called a throw-over— see Figure 58 or under-shoot it.
When volume is heavy as prices approachthe upper boundary line of the channel, chances are high that a throw-over will occur see Figure Whenvolume is light, wave five will either meet the upper boundary line or fall short. All too often, Elliotticians balance a bullish wave count with a bearish alternate.
So when does a C wave become a third wave? Ispent years trying to design a tool or technique that would confirm wave patterns and answer these questions. My theory is simple: Five waves break down into three channels, and three waves need only one. The pricemovement in and out of these channels confirms each Elliott wave.
Base ChannelFigure 61 shows three separatefive-wave patterns with three dif-ferent channels drawn: the basechannel, the acceleration channeland the deceleration channel. The base channel contains theorigin of wave one, the end ofwave two and the extreme ofwave one Figure 61A. Of thethree channels, the base channelis most important, because it de-fines the trend. As long as pricesstay within the base channel, wecan safely consider the price ac- Figure 61tion corrective. Only after prices have movedthrough the upper or lower boundary lines of this channel isan impulsive wave count suitable, which brings us to the ac-celeration channel.
Acceleration ChannelThe acceleration channel encompasses wave three. Use theextreme of wave one, the most recent high and the bottom ofwave two to draw this channel Figure 61B. Once prices break through the lower boundary line of the acceleration channel, we have confirmation that wavethree is over and that wave four is unfolding. I have noticed that wave four will often end near the upper bound-ary line of the base channel or moderately within the parallel lines.
If prices break through the lower boundaryline of the base channel decisively, it means the trend is down, and you need to draw new channels. To drawthe deceleration channel, simplyconnect the extremes of wave threeand wave B with a trend line. Takea parallel of this line, and placeit on the extreme of wave A. AsI mentioned before, price actionthat stays within one price channelis often corrective.
When pricesbreak through the upper boundaryline of this channel, you can expecta fifth-wave rally next. In a nutshell, prices need to breakout of the base channel to confirmthe trend. Movement out of theacceleration channel confirmsthat wave four is in force, and Figure 62penetration of the decelerationchannel lines signals that wavefive is under way.
Now for somereal examples:In Figure 62, you can see that mostof the January selloff in Coffee waswithin one channel. Since priceaction within one channel is typi-cally corrective, I still consideredthe larger trend up. This approachwas helpful in alerting me to apossible one-two, one-two setupin Coffee.
In May , I cited many reasonsfor a further rally in DecemberCorn. In Figures 63, 64 and 65 youcan see the underlying progressionof the base, acceleration and de-celeration channels and how theysupported the wave count. Normally,this would be troubling, because the basechannel defines the trend.
But Figure 68shows that prices were still within thedeceleration channel, which implied themove was still countertrend.
A combinedbreak of the base and deceleration chan-nels would have signaled a trend change. And, finally, Figure 69 illustrates howthe Elliott wave channeling techniqueidentifies fifth-wave objectives. I developed this channeling techniquein the mids and still use it today. For example, a bearish di-vergence occurs when prices make newhighs yet the underlying indicator doesnot. Notice in the lower left hand corner ofFigure 70 that in October , Cocoaprices pushed below the September low. However, the underlying indicator MACD registered higher lows duringthis same period.
This condition is re-ferred to as bullish divergence. Indeed,Cocoa prices soon started trending up. Figure 70Conversely, in February and March, wesaw higher prices beyond the December peak. Yet MACD failed to mirrorthe price chart and instead registeredlower highs during this same period. This bearish divergence suggests anupcoming decline in Cocoa prices.
Now that the explanation of Divergenceis out of the way, let me share with youa unique twist on the subject. Let me explain. However, the daily data forthe May Sugar contract shows that the oppo-site occurred, as Sugar posted higher highs Figure I consider this situation to be a Bearish TimeDivergence, and as you can see, it indeed resultedin a steady selloff throughout the rest of Notice in Figure 73 that prices registered higherlows in December of , basis the weekly con-tinuation chart. Yet, basis the May contract,the daily data registered lower lows instead. ThisBullish Time Divergence warned of a rally, and thatsignificant rally in Soybean Meal prices actually Figure 72continued into February of this year.
Now, I would love to say that I dreamed up thistechnique on my own. Time Divergence is actuallyan old-school technique used by many seasoned andknowledgeable traders to identify high probabilitytrade setups. Frost andRobert Prechter pulled it from obscurity. Even so, while searching for the next big trading opportunity, I use everything from old-schooltechnical analysis to computerized trading systems of my own design.
In the old-school area falls the Headand Shoulders pattern, which is a price pattern that often signals a reversal in trend. Dow, Richard Schabacker, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee. The last two names on this list youmight recognize as the Edwards and Magee who wrote what some consider to be the bible of technical analysis,Technical Analysis of Stock Trends.
So what exactly is a Head and Shoulders pattern? As you can see in Figure 75, it is a price pattern consisting ofthree up-and-down moves that make up the Left Shoulder, the Head and the Right Shoulder. The initial pricemove up is called the Left Shoulder, after which a small correction unfolds and introduces an even higher pricehigh, called the Head.
Following the secondary price peak, prices decline and then rally without achieving a newprice extreme to complete the Right Shoulder. Once the Right Shoulder has finally formed, a trendline can be drawn con-necting the initial reaction low with the one following the formation of the Head — aptly called the Neckline. To identify a high probability price target for the movefollowing the break of the Neckline, measure the distance between the Head and the Neckline and then projectthat distance down from the point at which the Right Shoulder breaks the Neckline.
Notice how effective thistechnique was in identifying the early November low in Feeder Cattle at Quite easily. Just imagine that the LeftShoulder represents the extreme of a third wave, and its subsequent correction, wave four. Wave five is theHead, and the selloff following the push to new price extremes is either wave A or wave one. The Right Shoul-der fits into our basic building block of the Wave Principle by representing a B wave advance or second wave,followed by a wave C or wave three decline, which of course penetrates the Neckline. Flags and pennants are zigzags and triangles.
For example, in Figure 77 Soybean Meal , the Head and Shoulders pattern that occurred in early did anexcellent job of indicating the April selloff and its likely extent.
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However, the Head and Shoulders pattern thatformed in June, July and August initially appeared to foretell a bearish change in trend that did not transpire. In fact, this particular pattern introduced a sizable advance in Soybean Meal prices instead. Final NoteThey say a cat has nine lives and that there are numerous ways to skin one.
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